November 12, 2008

Full editorial can be found at The New York Times.  It’s short, so if you care about the subject, give it a full read.  Nothing in it that cannot be found elsewhere in the discussions, except a bit about George Romney and American Motors.

I find myself largely agreeing with Romney, especially in regards to his recommendation that shareholders not be saved.  They (we, myself) made a bet and lost.  We deserve to lose money on it.  Sadly many shareholders were not gamblers or investors but likely employees looking to support their employer and build up a retirement nest egg at the same time.  They will be the losers in this deal, sadly.

While I do agree with the goals espoused by Romney to be achieved through bankruptcy (despite his odd comparison between the Taurus and the Avalon.  Really?  Camry isn’t a closer match for target market?), I still do not see how that is more likely to be achieved through bankruptcy than through a many-strings-attached bailout.  The costs of possible additional job losses and temporary displacement as well as the chaos that may result for bond holding banks (already under duress), other automotive manufacturers, and affiliated parts suppliers during bankruptcy proceedings I would imagine could have costs in the billions (once again, I am nothing close to a bankruptcy expert and Mitt Romney is probably pretty close to an expert on restructuring).

And as little faith I have in the abilities of government, I have even less faith in the heads of the auto unions and the automakers whose incompetence has driven a once-viable and prosperous industry to the slow and obvious collapse we see before us.  Would restructuring include giving every party at the table common sense?  To quote Some Assembly Required quoting, partially, former Chrysler President Thomas Stallkamp: “”There’s the feeling that next to financial services, automotive execs are the dumbest people in the world.” Not really, there’s politicians, economists and voters to consider, too.

Depending on the pricetag, could it be worthwhile to force the change through the vehicle of a bailout with conditions, that would salvage the reputation of Detroit somewhat and avoid cataclysm in employment and related industries during a time when every sector of the economy seems to be built of straw?

… and the cow goes moo

(the title is a follow-up to this post)

The New York Times:

“With an estimated 2,500 votes still outstanding and other election certification steps still to take place, Mark Begich, the Democratic mayor of Anchorage, had taken a lead of 3,724 votes out of more than 315,000 cast, and he declared victory [over incumbent/convicted felon/old curmudgeon Ted Stevens].”

It was a bit of a squeaker, but Alaska’s long nightmare is over.  I know nothing of this Begich guy, but I feel comfortable saying with absolute certainty that he will be better for America than Ted Stevens.  A cardboard cutout of Mark Begich would be better for America than Ted Stevens.

If it feels windy outside this morning, it’s because of all the sighs of relief coming from Republican Senators who were torn between denouncing a convicted felon and expelling him from the Senate (if he won re-election) and returning favors to a powerful senior Senator who, despite being a huge asshole, probably has some favours owed to him by many Republican Senators over the years.

Don’t let the prison door hit you on the way in, Ted!

… and the cow goes moo

The New York Times on Sunday:

“The result of the election will also leave Democrats operating shorthanded. Mr. Obama, of Illinois, resigned his Senate seat as of Sunday, and Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, the vice president-elect, is not expected to be voting. Those absences and others will complicate Democratic efforts to get 60 votes for the auto bailout in a vote expected on Wednesday. In the House, Representative Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, the No. 4 Democrat, is also tending to his new duties as Mr. Obama’s chief of staff.”

I’m still not sure what I would personally want the outcome of the vote to be.  I agree with much of what Mish says, and I do see the Detroit automakers as, to varying degrees, painfully incompetent and having lived long past their expiry date.  But I do believe that the dire situation could be used to bring about a less painful restructuring and renegotation than bankruptcy and the damage it would do to the economy and employment when it could least afford it.  Had fuel efficiency measures not been neutered and postponed for so many years, and the Detroit automakers failed earlier or adapted to the now-arrived demand for fuel-sipping vehicles, perhaps we wouldn’t be faced with the sight of such a steep precipice now.

From what I have read about the labour contracts and the costs per vehicle, major concessions by UAW members, retirees and current employees, would be required for GM to build and sell small, relatively fuel-efficient cars profitably (less than a week ago I read in the Motley Fool that GM was actually losing money on each car it sold, largely due to the large commitments it had to its current and former employees.  Mish’s post, which I linked to in my previous post, also mentions the UAW’s resistance to more advanced factories and processes).  GM may not have been simply too stupid to build small cars, but unable to do so profitably due to the overly generous conditions of employment in the past and (to a lesser extent) present.

Nonetheless, I am shocked that prominent Democrats involved in Obama’s transition would not take the time to show up to vote for or against such an important piece of legislation.  How do they rationalize that beyond by acknowledging that if they don’t need votes to keep their jobs anymore, they don’t care.

… and the cow goes moo

It seems like, despite Barack Obama’s unequivocal support for an automaker bailout, that there are more and more editorials and blog posts advocating a GM bankruptcy.  I guess after the initial shock and fear of a collapsing auto sector have worn off, people are looking pass the tainted term of ‘bankruptcy’ and trying to deduce what in fact would occur should GM (or any of the other Detroit not-so-Big Three fail).

The New York Times reports on the vociferous antagonism of some Republican Senators in this article, as well as providing a bit of background on the debate as it currently stands.

Michael Shedlock, who was very active in his resistance (and activism) against the TARP has started to push back against this latest bailout as well (much later than I had expected… I have been waiting for him to reveal the extent of his resistance for some time).

Is this simply because so much time has passed with little noticable change in GM’s condition and the day-to-day lives of Americans that the fear has dissipated?

Is the pathetic and shameless panhandling by Rick Wagoner turning off American?

Are the Democrats showing their inability to build consensus, even despite their unbelievably popular President-elect actively pushing for a bailout?

I have some doubts about GM’s chances in bankruptcy, considering the nature (and dollar value) of auto purchasing.  Once again, I am by no means a bankruptcy expert, but I wonder how many suppliers could survive with their #1 customer in bankruptcy.

What is most shocking to me is simply that an industry that may be recently maligned, but politically powerful and easily portrayed as a blue-collar industry, has failed so spectacularly to grease the right palms to get something passed.  In the days of $700 billion being passed off to one evil looking bald dude, nearly no strings attached, $12 billion is too much to spend to put the automotive industry on life support?

Not to mention the recent remarks from Wesley Clark stressing GM’s importance for the nation’s security.

Does GM suck at EVERYTHING?

… and the cow goes moo

The New York Times has an op-ed by former contender for the Democratic Presidential nomination and former four star general, Wesley Clark, making a case for GM’s survival on national security grounds.

It is a short and easy read, so I recommend anyone engaged or interested in the debate to give it a read.

I am not certain how important a domestic base for the production of our military’s light vehicles may be, but I certainly see Mr. Clark’s logic, even if my lack of direct military experience leaves me at a loss for the details.  Mr. Clark’s historical support for the subject is certainly convincing.

I wonder though, is bailing out GM necessary then or just Hummer?  Hummer has been languishing on the trading block (for obvious reasons) for months now.  Could the company be nationalized?  It really did not make sense as a consumer vehicle anyways, but it could still continue as a military producer that makes a faux-military good for ‘that’ consumer set.  I’m sure the Federal government could get the marquee for a great price.  And I’m sure GM would be happy to have it off of its hands.

And, to show how childish I am, this is actually the part of the article I found most interesting:

“For years the military has sought better sources of electric power in its vehicles — necessary to allow troops to monitor their radios with diesel engines off, to support increasingly high-powered communications technology, and eventually to support electric propulsion and innovative armaments like directed-energy weapons.”

The Army is developing lasers!!! Pew-pew!

… and the cow goes moo

Please see this previous, closely related post (and comments) for some discussion about a similar proposal made by a commenting blogger.

The Wall Street Journal has a short opinion piece (takes a minute to read, at most) exploring the possibility of saving the automakers through a car buyer rebate project.

One key point it brings up that were not addressed the the previous post’s comments is the limitations (and consequences) of selective rebates that rewards American content.  Playing tit for tat in reply could lead many countries to close their borders to the already starting-to-fall American exports and lavishing upon their own industrial infirmities similarly protectionist measures.

The bigger issue I would have would be how this could influence the Detroit (formerly) Big Three to change their ways.  I am not sure how lawmakers would attach demands for automaker reform to a stimulus package that does not directly go to the automakers.

The most pressing issue for those closest to the brink (GM) might be how these theoretical automotive rebates might influence buyers to buy enough cars in a great enough volume to stave off bankruptcy.  Without billions of direct funding, GM may not make it through the year.  For car purchasers who would use the rebate at GM, the company may not still be around to sell them a car.

… and the cow goes moo

According to Prof Krugman’s blog, Prof Warren will be a member of the bailout oversight board!  (Krugman links to a short article at The Politico)

For more about Prof Warren, see wikipedia.

Non-professors out there (like myself) might recognize her from her interview in the mediocre credit documentary, Maxed Out.

For more about Ms. Warren, here is a transcript of an interview she did with PBS Frontline - Secret History of the Credit Card (available for viewing in its entirety online.  God bless PBS).

Does Joe Biden know about this?  As VP, I assume he no longer cares about the support of his corporate sponsors in Delaware?

Will the powers of the oversight board be significant enough for Prof Warren to exert enough influence to counter all the forces that will be arranged against her in Washington (and Wilmington).

Anyways, like Krugman, I am blowns aways.  This is fantastic news and a great gesture even if her position is not one of great authority.  It also reflects a willingness to accept those of differing viewpoints in the Obama administration (I would imagine Warren and Biden could not differ more on bankruptcy laws and credit card policy, based on Joseph Biden’s repeated votes for the bankruptcy bill which I mentioned previously here).  It should be safe to assume that Reid and Pelosi did not nominate Prof Warren without input from the President and Vice President-elect.

UPDATE:

Elizabeth Warren is quoted in the New York Times article here (found at Calculated Risk).  CR’s post discusses bankruptcies further and the impact the 2005 bankruptcy law that Biden was so fervently in support of passing.

… and the cow goes moo

SEE WHAT YOU’VE STARTED?!

November 15, 2008

Calculated Risk posts about two new breeds of panhandlers coming to the taxpayer spigot (I don’t know how taxpayer spigot became abbreviated as TARP, but oh well).

First, we have insurers (not really a new breed if you don’t treat AIG as an exceptional case).  CR says:

“The AP reports: 4 insurers ask government to let them acquire thrifts so they can receive bailout funds

Next in line we have whole cities!  CR says:

“From the Mercury News: San Jose mayor seeks slice of bailout pie

Key quote from the source article:

San Jose Mayor Chuck Reed said “he would seek 2 percent of the bailout, or $14 billion, for San Jose — an eye-popping figure, given that the city’s entire annual budget is $3.3 billion.”

Bravo!  Four to five years of the cities budget would be required as a handout for San Jose.  They should make it an even $4 billion so that San Jose has enough left over to construct an appropriate monument to commemorate this monumental mismanagement of funds.

One interesting point from the article, as well as CR’s post/excerpt, is that much of the “required” money would be going towards road work and rapid transit.  Have we found a backdoor to forcing a revival of the Public Works Administration?  By work of poetry or coincidence, the PWA spent $3.3 billion as well.  Wow.

CR has another older post that discusses a few more cities with the begging hand thrust out in Washington’s direction, as well as more details about one of the insurers.

I think the more obvious solution for the government would be to setup a new Department of Taxpayer Buggery, run by unelected officials with close ties to major-campaign-donor industries, to administer the doling out of federal funds (can Neel Kashkari have two titles?).  It’s only logical, and I’m sure we could keep the administrative overhead below the amount of the funds distributed.  Initially, anyways.

… and the cow goes moo

(Previous post on the subject here)

The New York Times provides an update on related events on Friday.  Quick summary: Big noises and a whole lot of nothing.  Yap yap yap.

A couple of notable points though:

“The majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, swiftly rejected the White House proposal as “unacceptable.” Mr. Reid, in a statement, insisted that the Treasury secretary, Henry M. Paulson Jr., had the authority to use some of the TARP money to help the auto industry without additional legislation, which seems unlikely amid the rancor.”

Poor baby.  You offloaded Congress’s duties to an unelected and unaccountable (he doesn’t even want to keep his job!) investment banker, and now you’re mad that he won’t share?

“In a terse response, Mr. McConnell reminded Mr. Reid that the Democrats have not provided any draft legislation or cost estimate. He also suggested that many rank-and-file Democrats were opposed to the idea.”

Is Harry Reid just trying to divert the blame for a failure of passage from his own ineffectual leadership / lack of consensus-building / silly independent-rather-than-party-minded legislators to the Republicans in Congress?  I think it’s likely the shifting of blame to Paulson has the same purpose.

The first and last resort of the ineffective and incompetent: Blame someone else.  It’s also the first and last resort for someone who thinks those he or she is accountable to are unwilling to hold them to an exacting standard.

If people don’t want the responsibilities of Congress, why do we keep voting for them?  We should just make lobbyists elected positions and skip the pain of having unwilling legislators run for office to pad their lobbyist credentials.  At least we wouldn’t have to endure carrying as much ballast in Congress that way.

… and the cow goes moo

Wilbur Ross, an apparenty expert on the subject of bankruptcies (I’m not one, so I’ll take Bloomberg’s word for it), has provided a reply to the recent talks of allowing GM to fail, which in turn followed the kneejerk reaction that GM had to be saved.

Excerpt from the Bloomberg article:

“Ross, dubbed the “King of Bankruptcy” by Fortune magazine in 1998, said a restructuring bid by one of the three top U.S. automakers would topple its peers and drive weakened suppliers out of business because the credit crunch dried up financing.”

This is a point I’ve been concerned with for quite some time as I followed the recent conjecture that bankruptcy for GM might be the least painful option for the broader economy.  Specifically, I see a bankruptcy by any of the Detroit Three as a bankruptcy of ALL of the Detroit Three: I believe their business and images are too closely linked and beyond the destruction of their shared supplier business, the reputation of all American makes would suffer and consumers would flee American auto dealerships for those of imports (in even greater numbers than they have already).  The Seattle Post Intelligencer has an op-ed that touches on the mindset at play for car buyers when faced with the chance that their auto’s manufacturer may go bankrupt.

Of course, GM has stated that “bankruptcy isn’t an option under consideration”, according to TheStreet, so this is all moot.  After all, GM is usually really great at predicting the future.

… and the cow goes moo